Even history never favoured his chances — no men’s singles player has won the US Open after skipping both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati in the Open Era. Carlos Alcaraz was never the overwhelming favourite at the US Open 2026. Yet, the stunning straight-set win against Tommy Paul in the round of 16 had many believing it could be a possibility.
For a man who was out injured for more than five months, and had no match practice until his first appearance right in New York, the expectation was always a stretch. And then, an evening later, Alcaraz crashed out.
Shelton won their most recent meeting, at the Citi Open. Zverev has won four of his last five meetings against the Russian. With Alcaraz gone, Novak Djokovic out in the first round, and an injured Jannik Sinner never in the draw to begin with, Shelton has everyone’s attention right now, with a realistic shot at a maiden Grand Slam title. He’s playing the best tennis of his career at exactly the right time. His serve has been his biggest weapon this tournament, bailing him out in tight moments time and again. Add the physicality and athleticism he showed against Alcaraz, and even more impressively, a return game that’s improved enough to now trouble the very best in the sport. One thing’s for sure — an American is guaranteed to reach the final this time, with Shelton taking on Frances Tiafoe in the semis. And this has been the year for the German: at least the semifinals at all four majors, his best-ever season at the majors, including a maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros and a run to the Wimbledon final. No other player has reached the final four at all four majors this year. Up next for him is Karen Khachanov, playing his second US Open semifinal. That head-to-head against Shelton is an asterisk on any talk of the American being the outright favourite. He’s earned the right to be in the conversation. Whether he’s actually the man to beat depends on getting through the one player in the draw who’s beaten him every single time.
That win over Alcaraz also showed he has the mental fortitude of a Grand Slam winner — holding his nerve in the crunch moments, especially in the final-set tiebreak, where he came back from 4-5 down to close it out with an ace. This will be their fifth career meeting, and Shelton owns the rivalry 3-1. The lefty won in four sets in the 2023 US Open quarterfinal, and Tiafoe returned the favour the following year in the round of 32. Whoever wins guarantees the first Black American man in a US Open final since Arthur Ashe in 1972 — a storyline bigger than the match itself, but one that won’t make Friday’s contest any less competitive. But he won every match since in straight sets to return to the US Open semifinals for the first time since 2021. He’s also a former US Open finalist — he led Dominic Thiem by two sets in the 2020 final before losing in five. He’s also never lost to Shelton in five meetings, three of them on hard courts, and owns a dominant 9-1 record against Tiafoe.
Let’s make the case for “yes,” first.
